The Razor’s Edge is an investing podcast that combines a prop trader’s viewpoint and deep-dive fundamental research to provide a unique take on the markets. The show is co-hosted by Akram’s Razor, a trader, tech enthusiast, meat lover, Marvel fanboy, battle tested activist short-seller and humble market servant, and by Daniel Shvartsman, VP of Content at Investing.com and someone who has seen thousands of investing pitches and ideas and how they play out over the past decade. The duo start with a theme or idea from Akram’s investing, then break it down to understand what goes into the idea, what could go wrong, and what else investors and traders need to know. They also interview industry leaders, executives, and other investors to get a wider perspective. The show has thousands of listeners around the world.
Episodes
Thursday Apr 09, 2020
Thursday Apr 09, 2020
J Mintzmyer speaks with Euronav Hugo de Stoop as part of Value Investor's Edge's COVID 19 / Oil Price War Forum. While shipping is in turmoil, oil tankers like Euronav are very nicely positioned. The two discuss the outlook for the months ahead. Topics Covered 2:15 minute mark - How is COVID-19 impacting the crude tanker markets and EURN? 4:45 -How has the oil price war shifted the market- How is EURN positioned? 8:00 - Is this market surge different than last fall with COSCO? 13:00 - Only a few fixtures so far this week, more expected soon? 14:00 - IMO 2020 update, any shift in strategy? 19:45 - Any plans to load up more VLSFO to hedge lower fuel costs? 23:00 -The other ULCC on a new storage contract? Other storage requests? 27:30 - How do the recent resales fit into your fleet and IMO strategy? 31:00 - Any near-term supply risks or overhang on orders? 36:00 - Has your capital allocation strategy shifted at all this year? 40:30 - How to differentiate between vessel acquisitions and repurchases? 43:30 - Clarification on lock-out timing- delay to 1 Apr? Annual meeting vote? 50:30 - Any shift to your views on leverage? Still ample capacity?
Saturday Apr 04, 2020
Saturday Apr 04, 2020
After the Disney podcast we recorded last Friday and posted yesterday, Akram's Razor and Daniel Shvartsman continued to discuss the macro environment and the strange place we're in.
Friday Apr 03, 2020
Friday Apr 03, 2020
Disney is considered as blue-chip as it gets, but when you break down its famous flywheel - different business lines that all flow together to create the greatest diversions in the world - there's a lot of trouble spread around. Theme parks, box office, live sports, advertising are all under pressure - is Disney + enough to make up for that? We discuss the outlook for the entertainment company. Topics covered: 2:30 minute mark -The Corona bear ETF 7:30 - The flywheel is stuck 12:30 - Long-term effect on consumer behavior in travel 17:00 - The significance of Bob Chapek's theme parks experience 25:00 - Cruise lines and international flags 28:00 - Whither (wither?) the box office? 36:00 - Box Office as marketing 41:00 - ESPN - the wild card 56:00 - Disney+ - the ace in the hole? 1:01:00 - The next WFH play 1:09:00 - The diversionary business model in a diversionless world
Thursday Mar 26, 2020
Thursday Mar 26, 2020
The last time J Mintzmyer and Value Investor's Edge hosted a virtual investor forum featuring industry analysts, management teams, and investors, all the way back in January 2020, it was like another world. IMO 2020 was still the buzzword, post New Year cyclicality was driving behavior, and coronavirus looked like it was a local issue in China. Meanwhile, a virtual investor forum proved to be quite ahead of the curve. A lot has changed in two months. So, last week Mintzmyer and team hosted 15 guests ranging from industry analysts to investors to management teams, with a look at how the shipping situation has changed. The second public episode features Teekay LNG Partners' (TGP) management team, namely CEO Mark Kremin and CFO Scott Gayton. They discuss how their capital allocation looks under the current climate and whether there are any counterparty risks investors should watch out for. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark - Direct Coronavirus impacts to current work environment? 5:00 - Any direct COVID-19 impacts to TGP itself? 7:15 - Any fundamental changes for LNG shipping? Oil price war impact? 9:00 - Any shift in longer-term growth projects yet? Qatar plans? 10:45 - Concern for counterparties? Force majeure risk? 14:30 - Any exposure left to non-investment grade counterparties? 18:30 - Additional ‘deep dive’ into contracts regarding force majeure? 21:00 - How has this market shifted capital allocation priorities? 24:00 - Reiterating full dividend stability at $0.25/qtr? 25:15 - Opportunistically repurchasing units here? Higher volumes? 27:00 - Is the NOK bond market still open? Revolver extension? 30:15 - Any interest in repurchasing the preferred equity? 33:45 - Any interest in consolidation or equity plays in other firms? 34:30 - Midsize LPG rates holding up? 36:00 - When do forward LNG rates start to matter? 38:00 - Asking for a ‘full pledge’ to keep the dividend regardless of price.
Monday Mar 23, 2020
Monday Mar 23, 2020
As the coronavirus bear market continues to roil investors, we talk about what effect its had on the tech sector in general. Is the bubble over? Will the Nasdaq be a safe haven and a future outperformer? We discuss the impact already felt in the market and where things might go. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - The seismic shift 6:00 - Change in valuation approach 12:00 - Can the Nasdaq continue to outperform 19:00 - Risk assessment 25:00 - Owning market performance and the loss of margin of safety 34:00 - How ot assess going forward 39:00 - Potential sectors to invest in 48:00 - Are we at a divergence? 56:00 - Does a safe haven now sacrifice future growth? 1:03:00 - The flattening of volatility and the natural reaction 1:09:00 - The longer-term impact 1:12:00 - Close the market?
Thursday Mar 19, 2020
Thursday Mar 19, 2020
The last time J Mintzmyer and Value Investor's Edge hosted a virtual investor forum featuring industry analysts, management teams, and investors, all the way back in January 2020, it was like another world. IMO 2020 was still the buzzword, post New Year cyclicality was driving behavior, and coronavirus looked like it was a local issue in China. A lot has changed in two months. As Mintzmyer and the VIE team gather a new round of participants for a COVID-19 and Oil Price War focused forum this week, one of the themes is how that situation has changed. And there's no better place to start than with International Seaways (INSW). CEO Lois Zabrocky and CFO Jeff Pribor took part in the first forum - it was our most recent VIE episode posted - so it offers an easy compare and contrast. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark: What is the immediate impact of COVID-19 to your markets? 3:15 - How much follow-on activity is coming out of China? 4:45 - Any non-traditional routes developing due to the oil price war? 6:00 - How does INSW benefit from this market? 8:00 - Is the Suezmax market benefitting from this strength? 10:45 - How is the Panamax market performing now? 12:00 - MR product tanker market update? 13:45 - Any indications of potential product market storage? 14:45 - Have you adjusted your operations, shoreside and at-sea for COVID? 17:30 - IMO 2020 transition and scrubber update? 21:15 - Current timeline of scrubber installations in China (60 days!) 22:30 - Can you delay or back-out of scrubber installations? 25:00 - What is your current and target balance sheet leverage? 28:00 - Restrictive covenants in the current debt facility for repurchases? 29:45 - Commentary on dividends and share repurchases?
Thursday Mar 12, 2020
Thursday Mar 12, 2020
Elliott Management waged a short-lived and a successful activist campaign against Twitter, at least from the perspective of getting the company to respond. While the long-term results and the fate of Jack Dorsey as CEO are still unclear, we discuss whether Twitter's future is appealing for shareholders, what could actually be done to fix Twitter, and why this might not be the lay-up it seems. Topics Covered: 3:00 - Activist shareholders... Elliot's involvement. 4:30 - Is the goal solely to remove Dorsey? 9:30 - What's wrong with Twitter? 15:00 - Not growing fast enough given its exposure 23:30 - About Scott Galloway 26:30 - Should/shouldn't Twitter be more like Facebook? 29:30 - Strong user base that doesn't like change 33:45 - What do you think is going to happen with Twitter in the next weeks and months? 38:00 - What would you do in your first year as CEO of Twitter? 48:30 - Facebook excels at gaining attention, how can Twitter do this better? 53:00 - Twitter has a narrower appeal than Facebook. 1:01:30 - What can a full time CEO do? 1:05:00 - Who would buy Twitter? How to add revenue? 1:23:00 - Buy at this price?
Thursday Mar 05, 2020
Thursday Mar 05, 2020
Four different forces combined to create a big sell-off last week, and then a jagged but strong rebound this week. There's of course the spread of the coronavirus, COVID-19. There is the Democratic primary in the US and what it foretells for the Presidential election in November. There is the, ahem, healthy valuation of the stock market, poised at all-time highs before the 7-session sell-off. And there's the role of the Federal Reserve, both in setting interest rates and in providing liquidity to the markets. We try to break down what matters and what is transient here, while conceding that uncertainty is a big part of the overall outlook. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - How are you sizing the current market correction? Does this change your stance? 6:30 - Once you figure out your starting point how much does the virus matter? 11:00 - Is there a risk of market contagion? 20:00 - Was repo buying necessary? 21:30 - Has there been a fundamental change in the market such that it won't bounce back this time? 29:00 - NVDA as an example 31:45 - Have you made changes to your exposure? 40:00 - Does something like this week change people's perspectives? 47:00 - How do you evaluate a "drop" vs a recession? 1:00:00 - The election from a markets perspective... general politics.
Thursday Feb 27, 2020
Thursday Feb 27, 2020
J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge Live spoke with Lois Zabrocky and Jeff Pribor, CEO and CFO of International Seaways (INSW), to discuss their views on the tanker markets and IMO 2020. This followed on INSW's investor day in January, and comes in advance of the company's Q4 earnings report. Topics Covered 1:15 minute mark - Any surprises or different impacts in the markets? 3:00 - Impact from the lightering business? Additional EBITDA? 5:00 - Rate and fixture guidance? Old VLs doing well, Aframaxes poor? 7:45 - Difference between spot and TC fixture guidance? 8:45 - How do today’s rates compare to last year’s levels? 10:00 - Anything else impacting the market? Just seasonality? 12:45 - How are the Suezmax and Aframax spot markets doing? 13:30 - Priorities for cash flow allocation post-refinancing? 16:30 - Plans for INSW-A baby bonds? Call this summer? 19:15 - How do you balance dividends and repurchases now? 23:30 - Thoughts on current NAV range? How far underneath? 27:00 - What are some of the top risk factors in this market? 31:00 - If China imports from US, what sources are they replacing? 36:45 - Current status of the scrubber program? Any additions? 40:00 - All 2020 capex ($70M) internally financed from cash? 40:45 - More risks in the market which aren’t getting reviewed? 42:30 - Willing to look for time-charters? Where are they at now? 49:15 - Viewpoints on FSO joint-venture? Core to business? 53:00 - Closing comments- MR market, any resilience there?
Thursday Feb 20, 2020
Thursday Feb 20, 2020
PagerDuty was a screaming short last summer, an example of SaaS's over-competitive landscape and trading at a high valuation to boot. But with half the valuation and a stronger competitive advantage than expected, has the page turned for this tech company? Akram's Razor explains why he's taken the other side of the trade, and why the moat for PD has held up versus new entrants. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - What does the competitive landscape look like? 5:30 - What is PD's space exactly? 9:15 - How wide a moat? 11:00 - Why are you long? 17:00 - Are they attracting new business? 20:00 - Pricing discussion 25:15 - Have competitors had any success at slowing down PD? 30:45 - Net dollar retention going in the wrong direction? 39:30 - What are you looking for in terms of the stock at this point? 42:00 - Acquisition candidate? 54:00 - Why own "value SAAS"?
Thursday Feb 13, 2020
Thursday Feb 13, 2020
On January 14th, Value Investor's Edge Live hosted Robert Hvide Macleod, CEO of Frontline (FRO), to discuss the crude tanker markets and their balance strategy to IMO 2020. Frontline is one of the largest tanker operators in the world and is backed by shipping legend John Fredriksen. FRO is set to pay large dividends in this market and they have maintained a premium valuation ahead of peers. Robert discusses the various tanker segments and his overall viewpoints and areas of focus into the new year. Topics covered: 0:50 minute mark - Start of discussion: How is IMO 2020 impacting tankers? Any surprises? 3:00 - What is your current scrubber uptake status? Global fleet percentage? 4:30 - What is the current spread dynamic? Any plans to expand scrubbers? 7:15 - Will the time charter markets follow the strength in the spot markets? 10:00 - What is driving Suezmax strength and Aframax strength? 13:45 - Will eco-vessels improve your TCE results? How much? 14:45 - Confirm fleet splits of scrubber installations? 15:45 - Any broad market concerns for tankers? Why are stocks stalling? 17:30 - What are your capital allocation priorities besides the dividend? 19:15 - FRO trades at a premium, why is that a potential benefit? 22:00 - What is your target leverage? Planned split between spot and TC? 25:45 - Why is LR2 weak compared to the strong Aframax market? 28:00 - What are some of the key risks and uncertainties in the market? 31:00 - If placing a newbuild order, what type of design? LNG? Scrubber? 34:00 - How long are yards backed up with scrubber conversion work? 35:15 - Any potential for consolidation in the tanker sector? Frontline role? 36:00 - How many ships are laid up for COSCO sanctions? Potential impact? 40:00 - What is the market missing right now?
Thursday Feb 06, 2020
Thursday Feb 06, 2020
Facebook entering an election year is about as hot-button a topic as there is in the market outside Tesla. Akram's Razor has called it a compelling buy on two previous podcasts this year, and after the company sold off on its earnings, it seemed good time to revisit the story in full. With comparisons to Amazon and Google, as well as news media and the inevitable diversion into the issue of political ads, we try to tease out the case for Facebook. Topics Covered 1:30 minute mark - Is Facebook a consensus buy despite the sell off? 9:00 - Pulling in Amazon as a proxy 14:15 - Amazon, Facebook, Google and the tech conglomerate benefit or discount 18:30 - Facebook's PR challenge vs. their profit rush 26:30 - What is Facebook's "product"? 34:00 - Drilling into what's different about the modern tech companies vs. traditional media 44:00 - The actual effect of the scrutiny on Facebook's business - opportunity set and costs to overcome 52:30 - Finalizing the scrutiny arbitrage play, the e-commerce upside, and the $300 stock trading for $200
Wednesday Feb 05, 2020
Wednesday Feb 05, 2020
On January 17th, Value Investor's Edge Live spoke with Adrian Economakis, COO of VesselsValue, about the shipping markets and particular asset pricing cycles. Adrian reviewed some of the features of their research platform, which include trade analytics and a full database of all vessels and transactions. He also discussed some of the key observations from a review of asset cycle pricing across sectors. Tankers were on a run and not particularly cheap at the time, whereas there is some intriguing deep value opportunities in some ancillary shipping sectors such as Panamax Containerships and Offshore Support Vessels. Topics Covered 1:00 minute mark - Background of VesselsValue? What research features are available? 5:45 - How accurate have are the valuations compared to deals? 9:15 - Which asset classes are the most depressed? Deep value plays? 20:30 - Views on tanker asset values versus historical levels? 25:00 - Discussion on demand indications in the market. 30:00 - Vessel tracking models- storage impact? 31:30 - What are the COSCO ships doing? Laid up? Storage? 34:00 - IMO 2020 market impacts thus far? Scrubber installations? 39:30 - Specific scrubber metrics and valuations for IMO 2020? 44:10 - Any other risks or weird activity to watch out for? 46:00 - Commentary on the latest VLCC resale levels ($105-$107M)?
Thursday Jan 30, 2020
Thursday Jan 30, 2020
In a continuation of the first ever Virtual Investor Forum on Value Investor's Edge, J Mintzmyer hosted Svein Harfjeld and Trygve Munthe, co-CEOs of DHT Holdings (DHT), on January 16th, to discuss the VLCC markets and their current scrubber program and capital allocation priorities. They reiterated the strong prioritization of dividends while also ensuring the balance sheet remains very conservative- even targeting the potential for zero net debt in the future. Topics Covered 1:30 minute mark - How is IMO 2020 impacting the markets? Any surprises? 3:30 - What fuel spreads are you seeing? Expectations on forward moves? 5:00 - Current progress of the scrubber program? 6 ships still deferred? 8:00 - Any indications of a 2nd wave of installations? Doing more? 9:15 - How long will it take for you to install the last 6 scrubbers? 11:15 - Any pickup in HSFO storage? Are you participating in this market? 12:45 - Any indications of COSCO sanctions impact? Recent changes? 15:00 Why would the trade deal potentially be positive for DHT? 16:45 - With regards to the recent weakness, what are you seeing? 19:30 - Some of your top concerns in the market into 2020? 21:45 - Current capital allocation priorities? 24:00 - Target leverage? Down to zero net debt? 26:30 - How will the convertible notes factor into your structure? 27:45 - Are investors missing anything in these markets? 29:45 - Thoughts on the charter market? Willing to take cover? 31:45 - Standard reporting timing for Q4-19? Early February?
Thursday Jan 23, 2020
Thursday Jan 23, 2020
Pinterest has been one of the many 2019 IPOs to underwhelm in public markets to date, but there is an interesting growth story here. Filling a more specific user need, Pinterest could offer a more sustainable growth approach than other social media firms. The question is whether it can escape the example of Twitter's trajectory, and whether it can withstand the perennially looming juggernaut, Facebook. Topics Covered 4:00 minute mark - What's your gut take on Pinterest? 6:45 - The curse of Twitter 10:45 - How does the Twitter problem play out for Pinterest? 12:45 - Instagram as e-commerce vs social. 15:45 - PINS vs. SNAP in terms of targeted advertising 19:30 - What are investors waiting for with PINS? 25:00 - Don't the numbers show that they have room to grow? 34:00 - The threats of Instagram and Whatsapp and the cautionary tale of YELP 46:00 - Lack of engagement in Pinterest and its effect on investing 55:00 - The bear case
Thursday Jan 16, 2020
Thursday Jan 16, 2020
As part of the first ever Virtual Investor Forum on Value Investor's Edge, J Mintzmyer spoke with Anthony Gurnee and Paul Tivnan, CEO and CFO of Ardmore Shipping, about the MR product markets and IMO 2020 implementation. We discussed company specifics as well including earnings potential and capital allocation priorities. Topics Covered 2:10 minute mark - Start of discussion: Overall market impacts, any surprises? 3:35 - Are the markets topped out or room to rise further? 4:55 - What are the economics of an MR scrubber? 8:25 - Are your ships ‘eco’ specs? Fuel savings? 9:15 - Life expectancy of product tankers and your fleet? 10:55 - What sort of discount do older ships earn in today’s market? 12:10 - Are you seeing strong rates in handysize ships? 14:10 - Have you seen new routes developing? 16:40 - Any direct signs of fuel contamination? 20:55 - What sort of storage demand have you been seeing? 21: 55 - What indexes should investors be watching to gauge rates? 24:35 - Have you hedged any of your fuel costs? 25:55 - Current earnings and dividends at $20-$25k TCE? 27:10 - Impact of Middle East tensions? 29:35 - What are your current capital allocation priorities? 30:25 - Any newbuild or secondhand interest? Upside to assets? 34:25 - Any merger & acquisition opportunities in this market? 36:10 - Are investors missing anything in the market?
Thursday Jan 09, 2020
Thursday Jan 09, 2020
The market has seemed to be on an up and to the right path, but underneath there's been a surprising amount of churn. Large-cap growth stocks especially have moved suddenly on unclear reasoning, moves that seem skittish amidst a bull market. This may just be a sign of late-cycle behavior, or it may be a source of opportunity for the nimbly patient investor. We discuss several tech stocks and provide examples of what is going on. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark - Setting the scene on this market 10:45 - The whiplash effect and how this affects relative valuation 13:15 - Is long term investing in trouble? 17:30 - ZOOM, WORK, DBX as long-term examples of this phenomenon 28:00 - Finding the right pair trade... harder in this market? 35:00 - The general risk climate in the market 49:00 - Apple (AAPL) and 5G 54:15 - Given the issues, how are you going to trade for the year? 1:00:00 - Streaming vs. SaaS in terms of valuation 1:09:00 - Will there be a rush back into growth stocks in 2020?
Thursday Jan 02, 2020
Thursday Jan 02, 2020
Oystein Kalleklev, CEO of Flex LNG (FLNG), joined Value Investor's Edge live to discuss the overall LNG shipping markets, US-China potential, and IMO 2020 impacts. We discussed the various types of vessel propulsion technology, reviewed their capital allocation priorities, and pressed their charter vs. spot strategy. This conversation is relevant for anyone with interests in the LNG sector including GasLog (GLOG), GasLog Partners (GLOP), Golar LNG (GLNG), Golar LNG Partners (GMLP), and Teekay LNG Partners (TGP). Some of the US-China information might also be relevant for those interested in LNG export infrastructure including Cheniere Energy (LNG), Energy Transfer (ET), and Tellurian (TELL). Topics Covered: 0:55 minute mark - Start of discussion- Market review: LNG sentiment now terrible? 3:25 - What market differentials exists between modern and older carriers? 7:15 - Precisely what sort of premium can investors expect to see? 8:45 - Any clear impacts or benefits from the US-China 'Phase 1 Deal'? 12:55 - Do steam propulsion LNG carriers have a future? 16:25 - Any major new technologies on the horizon? 2030 carbon reduction? 21:25 - What about TFDE propulsion? Is there a clear future for these? 25:10 - Are there any direct impacts coming from IMO 2020 regulations? 29:50 - Are you planning to increase your charter coverage into 2020? 34:45 - What are your capital allocation priorities with extra free cash? 39:15 - Will dividends be closely tied to earnings going forward?
Thursday Dec 19, 2019
Thursday Dec 19, 2019
Craig Stevenson, CEO of Diamond S Shipping (DSSI), and Kevin Kilcullen, CFO, joined Value Investor's Edge last Thursday, December 12th, to discuss the product tanker and Suezmax crude shipping markets ahead of pending IMO 2020 regulations. We reviewed capital allocation priorities and why they believe their stock price has been underperforming, and what they plan to do going forward. This conversation is relevant for anyone long the product tanker or the crude tanker sector, including Ardmore Shipping (ASC), DHT Holdings (DHT), Euronav (EURN), Frontline (FRO), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Teekay Tankers (TNK), Torm plc (TRMD) or Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics Covered 0:45 minute mark - Start of discussion- Market review: any IMO 2020 impacts 2:25 - Product rates are lagging crude, what is driving this separation? 5:25 - Should we expect a significant spike in rates? Any disruptions yet? 7:55 - DSSI trades at a significant discount? How to address PE overhang? 11:20 - How is the market shaping up for product/crude versus Q3 guidance? 16:10 - Any new charters? Looking for cover here? Current 1-2y charter rates? 18:35 - Any desire to add additional scrubbers to the Suezmax fleet? 22:25 - What trade flows are we seeing with MGO and VLSFO? Sources? 27:15 - What efforts can DSSI take to reach to peer valuation levels? 29:45 - How do you view capital allocation priorities? 32:25 - Tackling 2021 maturities yet? Timing on those? 35:35 - How is management compensation structured? Fleet growth? 37:35 - Is DSSI available for sale at the right price?
Thursday Dec 12, 2019
Thursday Dec 12, 2019
Greg Zikos, CFO of Costamare (CMRE) joined Value Investor's Edge to discuss the containership markets and specific company prospects and capital allocation priorities. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with containership investments or interests, including Capital Product Partners (CPLP), Danaos Corp (DAC), Global Ship Lease (GSL), Navios Maritime Containers (NMCI), and Seaspan Corp (SSW). Topics covered 1:25 minute mark - Market review: Strong rates vs. Trade War Concern 5:45 - What is your scrubber plan for IMO 2020? Approach for capital spending? 9:45 - What are the biggest risks/concerns for this market? 12:15 - How does the supply-side look? Concerned about newbuilds? 14:15 - Have you seen any interest in LNG-fueled ship transactions? 16:10 - What is the most attractive area to invest in for containerships? 18:35 - What are your current leverage levels and long-term targets? 23:15 - What are your priorities for capital allocation? Dividends? 26:35 - Ready to raise the dividend yet, or need more growth? 28:55 - How are the longer-term charter markets shaping up?