The Razor’s Edge is an investing podcast that combines a prop trader’s viewpoint and deep-dive fundamental research to provide a unique take on the markets. The show is co-hosted by Akram’s Razor, a trader, tech enthusiast, meat lover, Marvel fanboy, battle tested activist short-seller and humble market servant, and by Daniel Shvartsman, VP of Content at Investing.com and someone who has seen thousands of investing pitches and ideas and how they play out over the past decade. The duo start with a theme or idea from Akram’s investing, then break it down to understand what goes into the idea, what could go wrong, and what else investors and traders need to know. They also interview industry leaders, executives, and other investors to get a wider perspective. The show has thousands of listeners around the world.
Episodes
Thursday Dec 05, 2019
Thursday Dec 05, 2019
Akram's Razor was a notable bear on Nvidia in 2018 before closing a short position. Recently, he switched from the sidelines to becoming an owner of shares and a bull. We discuss what changed with the company over the past year, how it's proven itself, and what may be ahead. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark - revisiting the short case 12:30 - NVDA's competitive position in artificial intelligence 23:00 - Expanded advantage in artificial intelligence, with the USPS deal as an example 33:00 - How Nvidia's moat plays out for new potential entrants 38:00 - The change in the valuation picture 47:00 - How crypto wreaked havoc on understanding Nvidia's gaming segment 56:00 - The structural questions in the gaming segment 1:11:00 - Mellanox and its import/fit with Nvidia 1:19:00 - Has management regained its credibility? 1:34:00 - Applying a lens to management's views
Tuesday Nov 26, 2019
Tuesday Nov 26, 2019
Mark Kremin, CEO, and Scott Gayton, CFO, of Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) joined Value Investor's Edge live in New York City to discuss the current LNG markets and TGP's specific prospects. We discussed their Q4 guidance, 2020 expectations, overall deleveraging goals, future growth areas, how to balance growth versus deleveraging, sanctions risks, valuation comps, and their smaller LPG assets. Topics Covered :45 minute mark - Start of discussion- Overall LNG market views? 3:15 - Fixed charters and performance versus spot players? 5:50 - Remarks on Q4-19 Guidance (see slide below)? 8:00 - Timeline for the final growth (Yamal #6 & Bahrain)? 10:45 - Deleveraging target? 5.5x versus 4.5x? 12:50 - Timing for future growth projects? 2023/2024? 14:55 - How to balance growth vs. stock repurchases? 19:35 - Is the COSCO-related risk fully resolved? 23:35 - TGP earnings multiple & comp discussion? 26:35 - Uses of $100M Awilco proceeds? NOK Bond plans? 32:35 - Are dividends driving your stock? When will payouts increase? 38:25 - What sort of forward growth is prioritized? Anything industrial? 41:05 - Final push! Confirm no growth unless the ROE is better than stock? 43:55 - LPG assets: Are these core? Multi-gas core?
Thursday Nov 14, 2019
Thursday Nov 14, 2019
Ted Young, CFO of Dorian LPG (LPG) joined us live this morning (1 November 2019) to discuss the LPG shipping markets and specific company prospects and capital allocation potentials. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with LPG sector investments including Avance Gas (OTCPK:AVACF), BWLPG (OTCPK:BWLLF), and Navigator Holdings (NVGS). Topics covered 1:00 minute mark - Overall VLGC market review 4:00 - Does the arbitrage curve and forward cycle still look strong? 7:40 - What sort of risks should investors look for? 10:40 - Leverage is away down, what are your targets now? 12:50 - Capital allocation priorities for Dorian? Enough cash reserved? 14:40 - Priority for dividends, repurchases, financing deals 20:00 - Repurchases low thus far? Any reason for this? 23:30 - Possibility for a buyback deal with BW Group? Any covenants? 26:40 - Scrubber update on timing? Delay with shipyard? 28:30 - Discussion on scrubber fuel spreads? Savings per day? 34:00 - LPG retrofit potential? Any expenses in 2021? 37:50 - Reviewing utilization numbers - expectations for Q4/Q1? 39:40 - Update on the 4x charters coming off Q4-19?
Thursday Nov 07, 2019
Thursday Nov 07, 2019
On this week's The Razor's Edge, we discussed Akram's Razor's recent short case on Invitae (NVTA). If you're following the stock, you're probably aware of the two articles the author of The Razor's Edge has posted on the company. There's a lot to cover, so we broke it down in a podcast recorded on Monday, November 4th, i.e. two days before yesterday's earnings came out. It also came out before Myriad Genetics (MYGN) earnings this week. We were joined by a colleague of Akram's, James, to have a little more color on the story. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark - Why Invitae? 8:15 - Investment case of accumulating the world's genetic information 17:45 - Comparison to Amazon... gene testing as a product. 22:30 - Theranos's issues and the comparison to Invitae 34:00 - Could Invitae build a data business? 40:30 - The long case for Myriad 50:30 - Challenges for NVTA 58:00 - Where do we go from here? What's the measuring stick? 1:03:00 - Is there a path to profilitablity for NVTA? 1:21:30 - Disruption of the market, redirection of resources, fraud issues and "nobility". 1:34:30 - Difficulty of building a sustainable model in healthcare due to costs.
Thursday Oct 31, 2019
Thursday Oct 31, 2019
Hamish Norton, President of Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), along with Simos Spyrou and Christos Begleris, Co-CFOs, and Constantinos Simantiras, Head of Market Research joined Value Investor's Edge Live on October 1 2019 to discuss the dry bulk shipping markets and disruptions ahead of pending IMO 2020 regulations. We reviewed their sizable scrubber program and expectations for slow steaming into 2020 along with capital allocation priorities as results turn strongly profitable. This conversation is relevant for anyone long dry bulk shipping names including Diana Shipping (DSX), Eagle Bulk (EGLE), Genco Shipping (GNK), Golden Ocean (GOGL), Navios Maritime Partners (NMM), Safe Bulkers (SB), Scorpio Bulkers (SALT), or Seanergy Maritime (SHIP). Topics covered: 0:30 minute mark - Start of discussion / How is the overall dry bulk market developing? 4:15 - How is IMO 2020 developing so far? Any distortions in the markets? 5:15 - Have there been any delays to SBLK's scrubber installations? 8:20 - Where is your fleet positioned, Atlantic vs. Pacific? Rate differences? 10:20 - What is the impact of the US-China trade war? Meaningful impact? 13:45 - Are Chinese environmental initiatives impacting the markets? 16:00 - What is causing the recent Capesize rate decline? 18:20 - Can we expect dividends soon? End of year? 21:30 - Potential for more fleet acquisitions? Criteria? 22:45 - Impact of scrubbers on future earnings potential? 26:30 - Is there any charter activity for scrubber-equipped vessels? 30:30 - Star Bulk still trades at a huge discount to NAV, any plans to fix? 33:00 - Repurchases v. Dividends Discussion.
Thursday Oct 24, 2019
Thursday Oct 24, 2019
This week’s The Razor’s Edge looks at Domino’s Pizza (DPZ). You might be aware of the company’s turnaround in the 2010s, reinvigorating their brand and delivering steady and impressive stock market returns. You might also be aware that the company has been a target of short sellers over the back half of the decade, as they scaled to high multiples and a more levered balance sheet. And, if you’re following DPZ actively, you may have seen the stock sell off after missing its Q3 earnings numbers, and then rebound after CEO Ritch Allison’s commentary around the unsustainability of 3rd party order aggregators. We discuss Domino’s rise and whether it’s now poised for a fall. The comps have slowed and the stock has followed, flat for the last 15 months or so. Does that portend a change in direction? Topics Covered: 2:30 minute mark – What happened in the Q3 report with the miss but then positive returns? 6::30 – the food aggregators excuse? 8:30 – the simple Domino’s bull thesis 12:00 – The missed tech play for Domino’s and the changing economics around delivery 15:00 – How do the food aggregators change the game 17:30 – Domino’s temporary argument 19:00 – The fading Papa John’s tailwind 24:00 – Domino’s remedies to counter these headwinds 28:45 – The buyback problem 32:00 – Why Domino’s and not other related plays? 36:00 – The variety on the market now and the pricing tailwinds 43:00 – Gaming out the short thesis 49:00 – The short for boring shorts? 57:30 – The international angle 1:02:00 – The food aggregators aren’t going away
Monday Oct 21, 2019
Monday Oct 21, 2019
The third public episode of Value Investor's Edge Live is a bonus episode, following on Thursday's discussion with Euronav (EURN) CEO Hugo de Stoop. J Mintzmyer spoke a few days later with peer company International Seaways (INSW), specifically CEO Lois Zabrocky and CFO Jeffrey Pribor. The conversation touched on similar themes, including the recent disruption in Saudi Arabia's oil supply and the pending IMO 2020 regulations. Zabrocky and Pribor shared how they are thinking about capital allocation and their view on the stock's relative underperformance, compared to peers. This was recorded on the 20th of September, before the recent big move in the shares. Given recent attention on the sector and the forthright nature of the conversation, it should be an interesting listen for followers in the sector. Topics Covered 1:10 minute mark - Start of discussion / Initial commentary on Saudi disruption 3:50 - What sort of situation could hurt rates? 6:20 - How are US exports looking? Signs of capacity constraints? 11:30 - IMO 2020 discussion / What have you seen in the markets? Positioning? 14:40 - What's going on with product tanker markets? When will they move? 17:25 - What are the capital allocation priorities? 20:10 - Is fleet growth and renewal still a consideration? 21:00 - Scrubber commitment beyond 10 vessels? 22:00 - Scrubber savings expectation in TCE? 23:10 - What are futures showing for spreads between fuels? 26:00 - What is INSW underperforming peers? Why should investors buy now? 29:30 - Are you considering repurchases? Any constraints to implementation? 30:50 - Strategic vision of refinancing? Any relevant covenants? 32:50 - Are your joint-ventures considered 'core?' Economics & plan there? 34:45 - What's the potential timeline for LNG JV refinancing? 36:40 - Is the share float or liquidity a concern for repurchases? 38:00 - How is your performance compensation related to share prices?
Thursday Oct 17, 2019
Thursday Oct 17, 2019
Hugo De Stoop, CEO of Euronav (EURN), and Brian Gallagher, Head of IR, join Value Investor's Edge Live to discuss the crude tanker shipping markets specifically following the major Saudi disruption and pending IMO 2020 regulations. We also discussed the potential for floating storage, Euronav's capital allocation priorities, the prospect of LNG dual-fuel vessels, and overall market thoughts regarding the increased focus on Atlantic-sourced cargoes. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with crude tanker exposure including other firms such as Diamond S (DSSI), Frontline (FRO), International Seaways (INSW), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Teekay Tankers (TNK), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics covered1:30 - What are the effects of the attack on the Saudi oil fields?4:30 - What's the outlook for US exports?7:30 - Scrubbers and use of compliant fuel.16:30 - What's the plan for the second ULCC and has the been movement in the sulfur spread?21:00 - Have you hedged against oil price fluctuations? How does this impact P&L?24:00 - How will the Saudi disruption affect your Suezmax fleet?26:00 - Are Suezmaxes being used for storage?29:00 - Will storage be drawn down now that there's backwardation? 30:30 - Priorities with current cash balance.36:00 - Are you adding to the fleet and will you be looking into "dual fuel" technology?41:00 - Overall take on the market: Are you more bullish or bearish with Saudi disruption?
Thursday Oct 10, 2019
Thursday Oct 10, 2019
The streaming video industry is changing by the week. Disney is preparing to make a big splash with Disney+'s launch in November, Apple just announced their entry, and AT&T is trying to supersize HBO's presence in the competitive arena. How will it all shake out, and who might be a big loser as a result? Akram's Razor and Daniel Shvartsman go back in time to Disney's Marvel purchase to figure out what has set Disney apart, and then discuss whether this threat is different from others that Netflix has faced. Topics covered: 2:00 minute mark - Introduction/background 7:00 - What brings you to Disney and Netflix? History of Marvel 20:30 - How can Disney succeed in streaming? 27:00 - What can go wrong? 30:00 - Potential effect on box office, cable, etc. 34:00 - Netflix in depth, background, transformation 40:30 - Wouldn't you bet on Netflix to solve the current issues? 44:00 - How much demand is there for content? 48:30 - How do you remain objective in investing with regard to some of these familiar brands? 54:30 - Problem of too much content. 57:00 - In terms of investing in these companies, what actual numbers matter? 1:00:45 - Is there a rebundling play here? 1:04 - Difficulty in finding "pure play" investments.
Thursday Oct 03, 2019
Thursday Oct 03, 2019
Robert Bugbee, President of both Scorpio Tankers (STNG) and Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) joined Value Investor's Edge Live's inaugural episode on Thursday morning (1 August 2019) along with James Doyle, Senior VP and Chief Financial Analyst for Scorpio Group to discuss the product tanker and midsize dry bulk markets. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with product tanker investments including Ardmore Shipping (ASC), Diamond S (DSSI), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), Torm (TRMD), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics covered Start of discussion / When will IMO 2020 show up? 2:45 minute mark Increased interest from suppliers/customers: 6:45 How is the midsize bulk market looking? 9:00 What might SALT do with STNG holding? 15:15 IMO 2020 as a major catalyst: 22:30 Can installations of scrubbers be sped up? 24:30 Any surprises or dislocations with scrubber installations? 28:00 What sort of spreads are we expecting? 29:15 Discussion of particular blends/logistics (dirty/clean)? 32:00 Will VLCC deliveries hurt the product tanker market? 36:30 When will Scorpio Bulkers be comfortable repurchasing? 38:45 Timing of repurchase and 'game theory:' 41:00
Thursday Sep 26, 2019
Thursday Sep 26, 2019
This trailer previews our initial two shows on The Investing Edge, from Value Investor's Edge Live hosted by J Mintzmyer, and The Razor's Edge, hosted by Daniel Shvartsman and Akram's Razor. Our excerpt for Value Investor's Edge Live is from our first episode, where J Mintzmyer speaks with Robert Bugbee of Scorpio Tankers about the company's comfortable cash position and the pending catalyst of IMO 2020. Our excerpt from The Razor's Edge is from the first episode, which covers Disney, Netlfix, and the streaming universe. Daniel Shvartsman asks Akram's Razor about whether Netflix can solve a budding challenge - too much content on the service. The Investing Edge is a podcast channel on Seeking Alpha that features shows from different Seeking Alpha authors, with a focus on their unique investing style. Authors will speak with CEOs and industry experts, break down key market stories and topics, and share insights on how they research new investments. The first two shows on The Investing Edge are: Value Investor's Edge Live, hosted by J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge. The show will feature J's conversations with publicly traded shipping company CEOs, sector experts, and fellow deep value investors about their companies and investing approaches. The Razor's Edge, hosted by SA podcast host Daniel Shvartsman and Seeking Alpha author Akram's Razor of The Razor's Edge.
Tuesday Sep 10, 2019
Tuesday Sep 10, 2019
The Investing Edge is a podcast channel on Seeking Alpha that features shows from different Seeking Alpha authors, with a focus on their unique investing style. Authors will speak with CEOs and industry experts, break down key market stories and topics, and share insights on how they research new investments. The first two shows on The Investing Edge are: Value Investor's Edge Live, hosted by J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge. The show will feature J's conversations with publicly traded shipping company CEOs, sector experts, and fellow deep value investors about their companies and investing approaches. The Razor's Edge, hosted by SA podcast host Daniel Shvartsman and Seeking Alpha author Akram's Razor of The Razor's Edge.